Wednesday, January 5, 2011

What's Up With Oil Supply? The Unasked Question

It is incredible how lackadaisically the mainstream has accepted the permanence of +90 a barrel oil. Something that was unthinkable in 2004, when oil was at $25 a barrel and projected to stay that way for decades to come, is now easily explained away. “Global oil demand is slowly rising as the U.S. and other major economies recover,” says Jerry Dicolo in the Wall Street Journal. Dicolo appear to forget that from 1990 to 2004 global oil demand rose just as fast as it is now, and yet oil prices held steady under $25 a barrel year after year after year. The question “I wonder what’s different now?” does not seem to occur to him.

There is a mental block that seems to prevent the understanding that oil production has been flat since 2005, and that thus a supply problem, not a rising demand problem, might be the reason why oil prices are flirting with triple digits. So the real question is: why is there a mass societal avoidance of recognizing our oil supply problem? Why can't Dicolo and all the others mention this simple fact?

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